War By Numbers

Christopher A. Lawrence of the Dupuy Institute has published the book ‘War by Numbers Understanding Conventional Combat’.

Available from Potomac books and Amazon.

War by Numbers assesses the nature of conventional warfare through the analysis of historical combat. Christopher A. Lawrence (President and Executive Director of The Dupuy Institute) establishes what we know about conventional combat and why we know it. By demonstrating the impact a variety of factors have on combat he moves such analysis beyond the work of Carl von Clausewitz and into modern data and interpretation.

Using vast data sets, Lawrence examines force ratios, the human factor in case studies from World War II and beyond, the combat value of superior situational awareness, and the effects of dispersion, among other elements. Lawrence challenges existing interpretations of conventional warfare and shows how such combat should be conducted in the future, simultaneously broadening our understanding of what it means to fight wars by the numbers.

Table of contents

Preface                                                                                          ix

Acknowledgments                                                                         xi

Abbreviations                                                                                xiii

Understanding War                                                                        1

Force Ratios                                                                                   8

Attacker versus Defender                                                             14

Human Factors                                                                             16

Measuring Human Factors in Combat: Italy 1943-1944               19

Measuring Human Factors in Combat: Ardennes and Kursk       32

Measuring Human Factors in Combat: Modern Wars                  49

Outcome of Battles                                                                       60

Exchange Ratios                                                                          72

The Combat Value of Superior Situational Awareness                79

The Combat Value of Surprise                                                   121

The Nature of Lower Levels of Combat                                      146

The Effects of Dispersion on Combat                                         163

Advance Rates                                                                            174

Casualties                                                                                   181

Urban Legends                                                                           206

The Use of Case Studies                                                            265

Modeling Warfare                                                                        285

Validation of the TNDM                                                               299

Conclusions                                                                                 325

Appendix I: Dupuy’s Timeless Verities of Combat                       329

Appendix II: Dupuy’s Combat Advance Rate Verities                  335

Appendix III: Dupuy’s Combat Attrition Verities                            339

Notes                                                                                            345

Bibliography                                                                                  369